Why does peak-season planning start in winter?
For many Australian retailers, the stretch from late November to early January delivers a large share of the year’s profit. But the decisions that decide how that season goes — what to order, how much, when, and how to pay for it — are made months earlier. A retailer who starts planning Christmas in October is usually too late for imported stock and has little negotiating power left with local suppliers.
How has Black Friday changed the season?
Black Friday and Cyber Monday have reshaped the Australian retail calendar. The ABS has noted retailers starting promotions earlier and running them longer each year, with shoppers holding off in October and bringing Christmas purchases forward into November.
The latest figures show the pattern continuing. In November 2025, household spending rose 1.0% on the month and 6.3% on a year earlier, led by furnishings and household equipment (up 2.2%) and clothing and footwear (up 2.0%), according to the ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator.
For stock planning, the lesson is simple: your peak now starts in the last week of November. Stock needs to be on the shelf — and paid for — earlier than it used to be.
Step 1: Review last season line by line
Pull last year’s sales from October to January by product line or category. For each, note:
- Units sold and at what average price.
- When it sold — Black Friday week, December or post-Christmas.
- Stock left at the end of January.
- Lines that sold out early, and when.
- Lines that needed heavy markdowns.
Sold-out lines are missed revenue. Leftovers are trapped cash.
Step 2: Forecast this season
Adjust last year’s numbers for what’s changed:
- Your own trend. Is year-to-date trading ahead or behind?
- Range changes. Back proven sellers; forecast new lines conservatively.
- Calendar. Where do Black Friday, Christmas, Boxing Day and your state’s school holidays fall?
- Market mood. Household spending has been uneven through cost-of-living pressures. Be realistic.
Build a realistic forecast and a cautious one. Order against the realistic case, but make sure the business survives the cautious one.
Step 3: Set an open-to-buy budget
Open-to-buy = planned sales + planned closing stock − opening stock − stock already on order
Example scenario — illustrative only. A homewares store in Newcastle plans $150,000 of sales (at cost) for November and December, wants $35,000 of stock left at the end of December, holds $45,000 now and has $25,000 already on order.
Open-to-buy = 150,000 + 35,000 − 45,000 − 25,000 = $115,000 to spend on new stock for the period.
Step 4: Work back from lead times
| Source | Typical steps | Plan to order |
|---|---|---|
| Overseas manufacturer | Production, sea freight, port, customs clearance, delivery | Often June–August for a late-October landing |
| Australian importer or wholesaler | Stock availability, delivery | August–September |
| Local maker | Production capacity | As early as they’ll commit |
Build in a buffer. Delays at Port Botany, the Port of Melbourne or the Port of Brisbane, and supplier stock-outs, are most likely exactly when everyone is landing Christmas stock. For June EOFY ranges, remember that factory closures around Lunar New Year can push orders placed in January back by weeks.
Step 5: Plan the cash
Now line up the money:
- When is each order paid? Deposit on order, balance before shipping, payment on arrival or 30 days end of month.
- Freight, customs duty and GST at the border. These are paid before the stock sells. See GST and BAS timing.
- Casual staff. Wages and super — now due within 7 business days of each payday under Payday Super.
- When does the cash come back? Mostly late November to early January.
The gap between paying for stock and selling it is the amount to fund. Better terms shrink it — see negotiating supplier terms.
Step 6: Staff, marketing and online
- Casual staff recruited and trained by early November.
- Rosters for late-night trading and weekends.
- Marketing — Black Friday offers, email, social and window displays.
- Online — site capacity, courier cut-off dates for Christmas delivery, packaging and returns.
- Marketplace and payment settlements — check how long platforms and buy-now-pay-later providers hold funds before paying you.
Step 7: Plan the clearance before you buy
Decide now what happens to unsold seasonal stock:
- Which lines go on sale on Boxing Day and in January?
- What’s the lowest price you’ll accept?
- Which lines can be held for next year without dating?
- What will be left for EOFY sales in June?
EOFY clearance matters for two reasons: it converts slow stock to cash before winter, and it reduces the stock value you carry into the new financial year. Our EOFY cash flow checklist covers the stocktake.
Step 8: Track and adjust
From Black Friday week, track sell-through weekly. Reorder winners early while suppliers still have stock. Move or promote slow lines before Christmas, not after.
Keep an eye on the cash as closely as the stock. If Black Friday trade comes in well below plan, slow or cancel late orders where you can, before they’re shipped and invoiced. If it comes in well above, confirm reorders quickly and check that your facility or supplier limits can cover them — a sold-out best-seller in the week before Christmas is revenue that doesn’t come back.
Funding the stock build
Many retailers fund peak-season stock with a revolving line of credit: draw in winter and spring to pay suppliers, repay from November–January sales, and have the limit ready again for EOFY or next season. It generally suits retailers trading six months or more, with limits based on turnover and bank statements. For larger needs — a second store fit-out or a large bulk buy — a property-secured loan of $20,000 to $1m may suit.
Our retail peak-season page explains how we help, and you can start a 60-second enquiry that doesn’t affect your credit score. For how a limit that refills works across the retail year, see revolving business credit.